Friday, May 20, 2022

The Future of Tesla vs Lucid: Engineering [w/ Two Bit da Vinci] [Episode 21]

Hey everyone meet kevin here today we're going to talk about tesla versus lucid cciv and maybe some of the other competitors and y'all know i love talking about both tesla and ccib and investing in them but i am not an engineer so what we have today .

Is a ricky from a 2-bit davinci a youtube channel was so so grateful i'm so grateful to have him on to help explain some engineering perspective behind maybe the differences between tesla and lucid is one going to be more competitive than the other is this going to be number one and two .

Uh and so ricky has a background in mechanical engineering from berkeley which is a school i almost went to i decided to go to ucla instead but i know nothing about mechanical engineering and i want to hear all about this so ricky welcome aboard tell us about .

What you know i got to pick your brain apart here yeah i've been looking forward to this all week kevin thank you so much for having me absolute honor i'm a fan i was watching your interview with voyager uh ceo just before this so thank you for having me and for all you do yeah i'm ricky i run a youtube channel .

Called tuba da vinci we talk about like ev sustainability solar panels and also the investing part of it like i believe my kind of my tagline is like invest in the future you want to see and kind of put your money where your mouth is right so yeah that's kind of kind of what we try to do .

And um so any of your viewers are interested in that you can check that out but you know first of all i think it'll be a fun day we'll talk about a lot of stuff your title is tesla versus lucid and i think can we just start there really quickly this is kind of the way a lot of people .

Uh phrase this and i've never been a fan of that i actually think it's they're on the same side really and the reason i say it is because i was just reading an article about the ford mach e eating into the tesla model y sales and um it's like okay well if every car was a tesla and machi .

Sales are two that's a decline in market share right but the way to look at this really is that the electric vehicle total addressable market is growing and so like tesla's not selling less in terms of model wise now that there's ford machi it's the opposite they're .

Coming off the line and they're sold like there's there aren't any sitting around so the market is growing and so as we get more and more entrants what will happen is there will be more ev shoppers i'll give an example i was talking to somebody who's who who leases a new amg mercedes .

S-class or e-class every three years so in three years he'll get the next one common like a lot of these you know um executives and stuff so that per he doesn't like tesla for whatever reason okay so let's say the lucid air comes out dream edition thousand horsepower and all this stuff and it looks good and he .

Loves it and he buys one well in three years he might be a future tesla buyer right because you've now converted the guy who was non-eevee into the world of vv so the way to think about this is we need for me my three favorite companies are lucid tesla huge tesla fan and rivian .

We need those three to succeed and yeah because i mean rivien's the r1s is like the little electric uh range rover right i don't know if you're a range rover fan i've always loved them i don't buy them because i don't think they're especially reliable to keep long-term but an electric range river so that's what .

Ribbian is doing with the pickup truck and stuff so as we get more people looking at evs tesla wins everybody wins like because we're gonna have the people that are gonna hurt are the people that make gas cards so i mean that's really that's fascinating because .

It's kind of what neo says in china neo has this this argument of hey look we're competing with tesla not against tesla and and i guess maybe you could speak to the engineering part of that because i i hear you know as you know more business and political degree i hear competition i think bad but maybe .

As an engineer you see competition you see no no no this is this is good because it increases uh profit and efficiency of maybe the battery suppliers or how about the graphite miners and all this maybe you could talk to that a little bit yeah that's a great point one of the the .

Bullets that i had i wanted to bring up is what we call the first movers advantage tesla has the first movers advantage how is that valuable well they're now maybe a 500 billion dollar company in the last couple of weeks but they were up to 800 billion right yeah we'll talk about that um but tesla .

Is synonymous with electric cars and there are people who aren't looking to buy an electric car they want to buy a tesla like if you give them hey here's a bolt huh what do you think they'd be like no no thank you i want the tesla right they've done a good job of being desirable but that's come at like great .

Cost as well they've had to build their own supercharger network which is not cheap i mean each each station depending on the number of stalls could cost between a hundred thousand and six hundred thousand dollars per station so now tesla's doing all that work .

When they started there wasn't even enough batteries to make a model three so they have to build the gigafactory which is billions of dollars of capex right so those are the struggles of being the first mover now you've got like rivien and lucid and some of the other guys .

Who benefit from being the second mover you get to sit back and see the tesla did they laid the foundation and they laid the road and now you're like cool now there's a paved road and we can we can actually take it so when that happens though tesla will benefit as well because .

If lg lg chem is working on a big battery plant in indonesia working with the government there for some good contracts and tax breaks and incentives because there's a lot of the raw materials are there so that new plant is a function of all these tesla sales so now .

If rivien is selling you know 100 000 trucks and suvs and lucid selling 100 000 of these luxury sedans companies will pop up to your point about lithium mining or uh nickel or any some of these other you know rare earth metals we're going to have more supply we're going to have more .

Companies doing and that happens prices will continue to drop it won't just be because tesla's making cells it'll be because the cell production around the world just continues to rise the other thing too is charging infrastructure if we currently just have teslas and there's the supercharger network there's .

Not that much motivation for if you're electrify america or blink to build chargers right you're kind of getting ahead of the game but when we have more evs that's going to be a profitable place to be it seems like at some point tesla needs to probably assimilate or somebody needs to like .

Standardize the connectors between everything is that you think in the future this is another i think challenge that they've had being first mover is they had that proprietary port when the rest of the world i drove a machi recently the bolt the lucid air they all have like a ccs .

Standard that's kind of like your usbc versus tesla's lightning like what apple does right there's actually a lot of comparisons i think we could make between apple and tesla i do think so and if even if they don't what makes me really irritated is they don't sell a ccs adapter in north .

America it's like it's an adapter like make it and sell it because what if there's a electrify america or a charge point charger really close to my house way closer than there is a supercharger i can't even use it because i literally cannot plug it into it so .

When wow there's gonna come a point where they do have to do that and also in the eu it might be because of like regulatory pressures that they do that but yeah i agree they need to standardize and i would clarify you had mentioned you you had uh taking a look at some of these different .

Vehicles you haven't driven the lucid yet right i have not okay okay so so you've seen it i do want to talk on these differences because you know they they sell themselves as you know public with we're going .

Probably or merging here with the public company cciv in case anybody's wondering uh lucid really sells its technology vision and suggests that their motors more efficient that they can get to 500 miles of range because they uh you know with 113 kilowatt hour battery pack because .

Their systems are so much more efficient and they've got this 900 volt architecture how what's going on here like can we break this all down because there's a lot going on that they talk about yeah exactly the the first thing i guess we can start with is if you do the math on kind of how .

Efficient you have to be like in the gas car world we talk about miles per gallon we can talk about like miles per kilowatt hour so lucid's claim uh puts them around like 4.5 miles per kilo hour which is in line with like a long range model three so first of all it's not crazy or out of the realm of possibility .

That was what i kind of argued with warren on when we debated on his show last week which is yeah 500 miles sounds really crazy when like my car has 300 miles of range but i have a smaller battery pack they do have more batteries and they've also made it more efficient so we talked about before we uh started .

This call i have a checklist of things that i want to see if a company is doing to if if it doesn't all kind of line up so the first thing is they really care about like subsystems every light bulb every system and pump and motor valve everything in that car is taking .

Away from your range right so traditional cars have like either halogen bulbs or hid bulbs really efficient cars like my tesla all teslas lucid stream they have led lighting and there's even like laser lighting which is another cool new tech but the point is really .

Good well focused light with way less energy draw so if you take that approach to all these different things that's the first way to get more efficiency you're not wasting it for things like lighting the second thing is that architecture .

The pack architecture so if we break that down a little bit what lucid is doing is they have a 900 and i think it's even like 924. i'm thinking it might be that you mentioned the 113 kilowatt battery pack it might be some random number that gets into the 924 but let's just let's call it 900 volt architecture .

Okay to do that what that really means is that they're putting less like battery cells they use the same cylindrical cells as the model 3 and y the 2170 from lg chem and they're putting less of these into parallel which means like you know the negative and positives .

Together which results in the same voltage but a higher current and then they're taking more bricks um let me try to simplify this a little bit by saying unless you have 100 batteries and you're trying to make a battery pack yeah company 1 takes 10 of those batteries and .

Ties them all into parallel which means if a lithium-ion battery has a 4 volt differential potential then that brick of 10 has 4 volts and then you'd have 10 of those so 40 volts in total what lucid is doing is saying we're going to put only five in parallel .

As a result have 20 bricks and have twice the system voltage the challenge though there's a lot of challenges for one the bms has twice as much work to do in a brick when you have like five or ten batteries in parallel they'll naturally normalize like the voltage will all kind of be regulated .

It's kind of like you can't have hot air and cold air in the room it's going to kind of mix and reach equilibrium but between packs they can be different so if the voltage in one pack is already really high and the rest were low and you go to charge it and you overcharge that one .

Brick of cells you could cause fires and other problems degradation so the bms's job is to track all those different packs so like in a voltage in the case of lucid with a 900 volt architecture you got twice as many bricks of cells to monitor as you would on a lower pack voltage .

System so there's challenges there also it's more expensive to build inverters at higher voltages a good analogy probably is solar so when you when you build solar inverters to convert that dc from solar to ac for your house higher .

Voltage the inverters do work better they're more efficient which is again the benefit but the problem is they are more expensive to build so this is where lucid invested in that wonder box like they've got this totally built in house because going off the shelf maybe wasn't even possible i'm .

Not sure but they built it all in house so they can control cost and be able to manufacture this in some meaningful way at cost so pros and cons expensive more challenging but the benefit is it's way more efficient the reason why .

One of the main reasons why is if you have double the voltage you don't need as much current so kind of thing like the pipe analogy you've probably heard but if you have higher voltage you have less current which means less heat is formed in the pipe or in the in .

The copper windings and stuff so that's how their motors are a little bit smaller and still really efficient and put out tons of power like they're really proud of how small and compact that motor assembly is and one of the main reasons why is they're able to run on that higher 900 volt .

Architecture okay so this the 900 volt architecture is really uh a symptom of how they're organizing the batteries and that puts some more strain on these battery management systems but it it comes at the benefit of more efficiency so it's harder but there's more efficiency what's uh you know i and maybe these .

These are things confuse me here i hear about going to a 48 volt system but then i hear tesla's you know like how is that different from this 900 are those just totally different systems yeah so there's there's low voltage systems in your car like if you have an old older car you .

Have a 12 volt like lead acid battery that big heavy thing you got to change over a couple of years and what's funny is my 75 kilowatt battery pack tesla with like cutting edge batteries has one of those i have one of those batteries so tesla is forgoing the 12 volt system and going .

For a 48 volt system that's like the consider the low voltage system oh so that's for like the the tvs and or the monitors and and all the like the autonomy or whatever that's going from 12 to 48 uh and then the the 900 is in reference to the battery packs or tesla's maybe at you know 400 the way .

They've set up their battery packs lucid's going to this 912 or whatever uh a voltage and and lucid is doing that because they're trying to be more efficient and because of that they're able to downsize their motors uh and and be more heat efficient or something i mean i mean that sounds good like why doesn't tesla do that .

I actually think they will they haven't made this wow official so this is pure speculation you have a little banner at the bottom uh i think the cyber truck the roadster and the plaid plus model s the stuff that's going to use their 4680 cells that they're building is going to move .

To a higher system voltage is my prediction but again they've had the baggage of they've been doing this for a while so their plants and their facilities are built for this older stuff right whereas lucid or some of the newer guys didn't they weren't tied to that they .

Were able to jump right to a higher system voltage the ionic 5 is going to have a 800 volt system the porsche tycoon 800 volt all new cars are going to have this higher voltage system and in the case of lucid what they do is kind of like your house your house here in the u.s we have 110 volt ac coming in but you .

Have two different lines right the 240 combines the two well in lucid's case they have like a 400 volt rail and then a 800 or 900 volt rail so some systems if they run better around 400 you could grab that or you could put .

Them to series and get the full 900 volt so there's tons of little games and tricks but like you said computers for example they don't need 400 volt they want the opposite they probably need like well over 24. so different streams okay levels so so really this this is being done for .

Efficiency purposes and you think tesla might end up going in that direction but uh lucid i mean how do we know that lucid's actually got this tack you know i mean like it all sounds good on paper but shouldn't it make some of us nervous and investing in the idea especially after .

Like a nicola yeah that's that's the uh comparison that i hear a lot um so first of all we do need to see it like i'd love to like if lucid is watching this like call call me and kevin and give it let us drive the thing and you know kind of talk about our findings and stuff so we .

Do need to see it i think that is a fair uh assessment to the example of nicola nicola really bugs me because i think they did such an injustice to the entire eevee space what they they did is they kind of hurt public trust um but i'll give you some highlights difference between the two .

Companies nicola was working on like 10 things right they had like a battery jet ski and a hydrogen semi and you know trevor milton was coming out talking about how he had this radical new battery and he'd radicalized how you can make hydrogen all stuff that didn't make sense it's like .

If what you're saying is true you should you're going to be a trillionaire like there's you know it just didn't make any sense right and also they only had 300 employees even now so 10 projects that you're building with 300 employees and so that means what maybe a hundred engineers you're .

Building all of this with a hundred engineers it just didn't make sense i think the signs were kind of there in the case of lucid they're building one thing the the air there's there's you know they're going to build an suv later but it'll be kind of the three and the y where they share platform and stuff but they have 2 000 .

Employees and they're building one product um wow they have a factory now we're close by the way we we i should be getting a invitation i i kept emailing them i want to see your factory and i think they're going to give me a factory tour in the next couple of weeks .

Or so so i'll make a video about it but i want to see that you're totally right as far as what we've seen um yeah we haven't seen everything yet but i'm hoping that that slowly does reveal itself it's a lot of the same thing with tesla too like we haven't .

Seen the plot plus you know we we don't really when they when they showed us the roadster all those years ago i don't even think it was possible because it requires the 46.80 sell which came like two years later right but i think that's all okay because i trust that they'll do it .

Um yeah we and with tesla i know we had a lot of the doubters up front as well and so really uh your thinking is hey look we've got this factory we got 2 000 employees nikola only had 300 and they're they're going in every direction and they're trying to revolutionize batteries at the same time as hydrogen .

Lucas is just saying look we're we're just here to provide a more efficient car just one car right now the lucid air and uh and then eventually we'll go and do i think they've got four versions of this in different prices all the way down to like 70 000 or whatever that'll come out in time i .

Mean but i guess the big struggle i have is why would you buy a lucid why not just buy a tesla so do you have a tesla by the way i don't think i asked you that i have an x uh 2017x so let me let me i'll turn this around and ask you would you get a dream .

Edition lucid i i mean i want to drive it you know if i was blown away i'd consider it you know i i because certainly as as uh i i hate buying cars i buy car like i bought the x uh oh solely because of the autonomy it was like cool i can i can drive .

That's actually one of the concerns i have with the lucid like if i get in a lucid and it's like oh cool this is awesome everything's cool about it's got a longer range in this but then it's like oh yeah then the self-driving or whatever you know even just self-driving on a highway which .

Obviously the tesla has now uh that's not gonna be available for another year i'm gonna be pissed yeah yeah i'm with you on that front the fsd i think we should probably talk about like all by itself later a little bit later on um i'm with you on that for sure after having a tesla and not having to drive like on the five .

Up north right northern california i'm not going back to not having that there's no yes um so i'll say first of all i love the idea of 500 miles of range you know in this pandemic we actually put 17 000 miles on my tesla during a pandemic and the reason why is my family's in the bay area so san diego to .

The bay area about a thousand miles but we did it a lot just to keep my kids sane and you know go to my mom and dad's farm and see the chickens and bunnies and stuff so there's that interest also i think it's a gorgeous car for whatever reason i've always loved the look of the air .

Um just especially the front and the side profile it has this cool like double bubble window detail like on the c pillar near the back i just think it's a cool look um i'm not gonna lie the two cars i would like die to have right now would be a plat plus model s .

Or the lucid air both in the 500 mile ranges for this reason as a kind of ultimate um car road tripper so watch actually potentially take the lucid over the platter i'm going to pull up a picture of it here really quick so people can see it but you would you would potentially take .

That over huh i would i would and it's it's hard to say and to be honest with you that's why i'm almost cr i feel crazy seeing it but yeah i i think i would i again subjective right the design is subjective to how you feel about it but i love that car and i want to i want .

A world where that car is out in the roads and that's an option um i'm not gonna lie though i'd love to have a model s plaid plus as well um either of those would be great but competition is just kind of generally a good thing you know i was making this joke with my wife earlier where i live .

Teslas are as common as can be no one even looks at me i don't i don't i blend in i'm like a ghost in my model 3. especially because mine's white i drove the mach e the ford machi in red a week ago and everywhere i was going i was going like in and out burger or like a starbucks .

People were like rolling out their windows and like hey cool car and like pointing like looking and talking to us and taking pictures and stuff that just don't happen in my tesla because i mean everybody has a tesla right especially like if you live in the bay area or la or .

San diego they're just really common so my suv is yeah yeah it's the uh the maki you see it yeah i do have a gorgeous car i think it's a fantastic it's nice i think it might be the best like leg yeah it doesn't have so my wife prefers the y because it has a third row option .

Which the maki doesn't have um but looks wise yeah i think it's a good looking car for sure yeah but just having more options i think is a good thing you can't have a world where you have one car tesla who make four models and five colors like that's just that's no good we need to have a wide .

Variety of options i think it's kind of the way to look at it ah okay so you see lucid as really maybe providing that that alternative to maybe that mercedes buy or that bmw buyer and uh as a result eight lucid and tesla could coexist you know if you don't want the s fine here's an alternative for you .

Uh here's another sedan that you could buy a luxury sedan because who else really is providing luxury electric fully electric sedans right now we've seen all kinds of goofy concept cars but like honestly like on the brink of production yeah there's .

There's nobody else right now and a year from now it's just going to be you want a luxury sedan that's all electric and hopefully self-driving which we'll get into uh you've really you're stuck with either tesla or the lucid in a year from now yeah exactly and in the last 10 years it hasn't even .

Been that it's been are you getting the model s or the three or the you know it's just it's just been one company which and we should have credit i have been wondering why would somebody buy a model s when you could just buy the three like why would i spend all that extra .

Money so this gets to i think just the kind of kind of individual that you are and how much money you make and your status in society right there are people i know who drive the s or the x because it's just a little more premium they feel like they're in a in a more premium segment there's .

Nothing wrong with that there's people who buy mercedes and bmws right you could just buy a ford fiesta and get around very economically but you could get a mercedes-s class so i think part of it is the the the status symbol right and you probably know people like this .

But i know a lot of people who used to be audi drivers or bmw guys who now are all about tesla because they're just even cooler than their old cars used to be got it yeah that's a good point that's true huh okay so and and you think lucid could be that uh that alternative i .

Like i've called it sort of the potential neo of america because we don't really have a you know maybe the future will actually have literally neo in america but right now you know you go to china you can pick well what do you want you want the tesla the neo the x-bang you know byds got like dozens .

Of these electric cars uh i don't think they get much credit but uh you know out here it seems like you got tesla or you know the volt yeah exactly there's a new bolt by the way it's far improved it's a little bigger and stuff i don't know if you've seen that one you .

Can take a look but the new bolt euv is kind of cool but i think it suffers from the same problem which is it's not as desirable you know people are passionate about getting that tesla they want to get the model y or the three because they're so excited about it the bolt to me feels more of a practical .

Choice but it's a solid car and it's really well built and i'm hoping that gm copies takes a page from the ford playbook and builds more desirable evs because that's what ford has done with the maki especially is they've done a good job of building yeah so there's the um yeah that's the .

New front right i don't know if you remember the old one but it's been yeah it's very different yeah it is um so we don't yeah you're right we don't have that x-paying x-paying has some really cool stuff they're showing off neo as well um a lot of tesla owners aren't gonna like neo because you know all the .

Allegations of stealing some of tesla's tech from you know from a couple years ago but we we do need that other boost and the way i look at this too is what's different about lucid or rivien building a new car versus general motors with the bolt is with .

A new startup you have the opportunity to have kind of a fresh piece of paper design meaning there's no legacy baggage you're not trying to save money by using whatever you can because of what you used to do you just kind of go i'm gonna here's my vision of what the most amazing cool suv .

Like the rivien r1s which might be my favorite ev right now um whereas if you're gm or somebody else you're trying to think you're kind of limiting yourself to how you've thought in the past a little bit right so that's why i think people think oh when general motors and vw switches their minds to go in ev tesla's .

Toast like no that's probably not going to be the case because by then it's probably going to be pretty late in the game and at this point with tesla it probably is they're not going to probably catch them but i do want to see too much baggage too much baggage holding them back with .

Their legacy systems their factories maybe all their employees like how do you convert a an ice manufacturing factory into an ev manufacturing factory you're almost completely different worlds huh yeah and the co it's not it's not cheap um and you know you have to make those judgment calls and tell .

Your shareholders hey remember that chevy uh tracks we sold a million of well we're gonna stop selling as many of those to try to do this new thing and it's just tough and sometimes it's literally a baggage like pension obligations or other things that that are just tying you down that a new .

Company doesn't have to deal with got it so what about apple i mean you know we keep hearing rumors that apple's gonna come out with something i interviewed sandy monroe and and he kind of dropped a little bomb that maybe there he's in a contract with them and and you know he does uh you know advisory services for .

Manufacturing or the manufacturing of electric vehicles it seems like a pretty good tell that at least apple's doing their dd you know their due diligence are they just too far out the the thing though with apple is they don't actually they're not much of a manufacturing company .

If you look at the back of your macbook or your phone it says designed in california they say that because it's not made in california and in fact they don't even own the factories and this is kind of a really it's a business decision but foxconn builds their phones you know so .

Apple the phone that you're holding was not manufactured in some apple plant in fact there's no such thing apple does this really to get around any kind of laws of like labor laws or any other issues they're like oh this is the third apple is very slick um how they how they operate .

They don't bring this up very much and they don't want you thinking about it but they're they're a very smooth customer in terms of how they operate um so for me though the problem with that is they're i think they have good industrial design for small consumer products but like an engineering design .

For a car is just a different beast so they would have to go to the drawing board of recruiting from all these other car companies you know go getting tesla engineers and rivien engineers so i i don't feel like they have much in the way of an advantage in any way so typically you .

Want to enter a market where you have an advantage sure apple's really good at this they don't make printers they don't make refrigerators right fable stuff they know they can with minimal capex they can get tons of return on investment an ipad is a bigger iphone you know a macbook .

Now runs the same operating system they're building their same chips that are all arm so they're smart in that regard um so i don't see any market advantage i think what might make more sense would be maybe to you know offer like self-driving machine learning kinds of .

Services as a software software you know the to get bring the what is it called uh car play just expand on car play and hey you want to put car play in the chevy the ford the toyota the whatever here you go yeah they're doing that already it might even be more than that now it might be .

Like hey and those cameras that we put in we'll send those to our servers and do the machine learning and build this self-car self-driving car and all you need to do is go update like we'll go hey new version hit update okay and you'll get all of it for free that's pretty compelling especially if you're .

Chasing tesla who is way far ahead in that regard we'll talk about that i think that's that should be fun is it possible that maybe lucid could partner with apple and just go look we got the engineering we got the motor we got the 900 volts apple yo just hook us up with .

You yeah i think before the spec i had thought about that um i'm not gonna lie if i was tim cook i would have just i would have bought lucid and turned it around put a apple logo on the front because if you look at the lucid air to me it .

Looks like an apple product that's maybe the best compliment you can give it it is it's stunning it's a kind of a thing apple would make um now though that they're going public i mean it's still not impossible the timing of it all seems a little bit weird um .

But yeah maybe they'll i we did hear rumors that they were potentially going to partner with apple for some of the software stuff now i think it's amazon that people are talking about you follow this problem more than i do well yeah no i i actually have not heard these amazon rumors there are amazon rumors now too .

Yep people were thinking it might be apple that they're partnering with but you know amazon talk about like aws and the cloud compute business no one does it better i mean pretty much the whole world runs on amazon so amazon might be a good partner especially if they get into this .

Business and say you car companies you build the cars put our gear in there we'll take care of the rest that's how you beat tesla to full self driving because now tesla might have a million cars in the road but if you partner with someone like amazon who i mean talk about .

Engineering might over there on amazon they could and what you really need is that data to feed your models so if they have tons of models of car out there that could make sense for for lucid and i will say quickly yeah good now there's a look at your point about like uh .

The focus and what lucid is doing peter rawlinson in an interview he mentioned that he um he's a little bullish on fsd and he doesn't he's not investing as much of his team he's focusing on the ev part let's be masters of making the best inverters and drive trains and .

And motors and he's going to be partnering with somebody i don't know if they've mentioned who but they're going to partner with somebody for some of the full self-driving stuff yeah i mean in theory you could just put in a mobile eye you know qualcomm's got this nvidia's .

Got this well like the options are out there i mean that's after all what uh neo did right i mean neo doesn't mean neo doesn't even manufacture on cars neo manufactures their car at a partnership uh or at uh oh i forgot uh uh who is it it doesn't matter who it is right now i forgot but they're half .

Owned by the chinese uh government and half owned by volkswagen they're not manufacturing their cars they're not manufacturing their own batteries and uh and they're not doing their own autonomy maybe in the future they might so really you've got lucid here they will be manufacturing their own cars but .

They could just as easily plug in some autonomy like like leo did huh yeah exactly it's really apple and android if you think about it right apple went down the road of doing everything themselves and everybody else uses android but the thing is nine or eight eight out of ten phones in .

The world or android so there's a lot of power in in that volume um and it's kind of the same sort of a thing do you do it all yourself or do you partner right yeah yeah okay so so lucid i mean don't you think they they should have announced something .

About self-driving already like why would you spack and not mention in your 70 plus page investor presentation something about full self driving like it seems like a a honestly i mean kind of an idiotic pr move for like what am i missing here do they just not have anything yet have they just not even .

Thought about how important this is to me i don't care about electric cars i care about self-driving you're not a lot you're not alone on that i think i think you're right i think they're probably a little bit behind if i had to guess i think they're focusing on getting this .

Car like engineering complete and then ready for manufacturing which is another animal remember the model 3 ramp up it's a crazy thing trying to build cars it really is so i think they've been focusing on that and i think in terms of their self-driving they're starting to say like maybe we .

Should maybe we should partner with somebody else and and try to take a new approach at this so i think maybe there might be news about this later on but clearly i think if i had to guess i'd say they're probably a little behind on that front but if you partner with the right people .

That might not be as bad as it seems right now doesn't that create issues though because i mean look at tesla so tesla's got you know there are eight cameras or whatever they have but it's on their models like the cameras and the data is associated with those models .

If you start plugging in uh you know a a mobile eye you're putting a software stack on to all these different hardwares oh well now it's supposed to work on a camry now it's supposed to work on the lucid air not supposed to work it's not just going to create issues or does it not matter so much does the .

Dimensions of the cars and exactly where the cameras are does that not matter as much that is such a good question and very few people ask that question again i'm going to go back to apple and android i'm an ios developer i write apps for iphone and we always kind of make fun of the .

Android guys because for our us our jobs are easy there's like four models of phone and size so for us to build an app it's really easy whereas on android you got to build it not knowing this could be like a two inch thing or a hundred inch refrigerator door who knows we have no .

Because that's running everything so the challenges are greater but really it comes down to um building the right kind of like apis and understanding like what is the inputs that are needed you make a good point like maybe the chevy bolt has a a wider um focal length camera .

You have to know that because the focal length of the camera is what determines like how far in the distance how far that actually is how high is it from the ground on different cars it'll be different so i think what will be required is a validation process like if you're working with us and we're mobilized .

Your car we need to know the sensor height of each sensor we need to know the focal length of the camera the megapixels we need to know like the frame rate that is recording it and so i think it's kind of like android android if you want to if you want to partner with android they have like a more premier model where .

You have to follow rules like here's the specs you need to have if you don't meet these specs you can't license our software so i think it's a harder problem and it's not as clean cut as it is on tesla but it's doable okay okay but i mean then on the flip side .

Tesla's got the miles driven you know i mean if an apple comes in first of all why would somebody use apple how many miles do they have driven they don't have a car i mean maybe they got some betas out there but like how many engineers can you hire to drive around meanwhile tesla's you know billions of .

Miles driven i mean you know waymo is not even close to that so isn't that a huge disadvantage for for anybody who might partner with lucid and then thereby a disadvantage for lucid yeah so right now today i'll i'll say there's if i were to buy a .

Model s plat plus instead of elucid it'd be for two reasons right now the supercharger network which is a huge advantage for tesla and two it's the full self-driving advantage that tesla has right but what's interesting is on both of those fronts the future might not look .

Exactly like it does today you're right about tesla has billions of miles driven in terms of like the number the amount of data just sheer data that they have and they continue to get every minute with every new driver on the road today is is vast but you partner with someone like apple or you know microsoft has an azure driving .

Solution as well that they're selling as a service if you get one of these big-time players and you partner with a lot of car companies the data advantage can switch like within a year honestly oh you signed the right deals and say hey the next generation chevy bolt and the .

Next generation mock e is going to be sending data to microsoft's cloud azure service that they're going to be developing that advantage in data can change quickly and by the way it doesn't have to just be evs we always think about evs and stuff full self-driving but ice cars can have full self-driving .

Too so imagine if some car manufacturer comes out and says we're partnering with blank to run all of our cars on this new platform so that advantage can shift kind of the same way apple dominated sales early on but eventually when hundreds of companies are working with .

Android they're going to have their own saturation that's fascinating i didn't even think about a couple things that you said here i mean look what does tesla have on the road you know a few million cars or whatever i mean relative to to like a volkswagen that i think is selling like nine million cars a year .

Right imagine if you had essentially what you're saying here uh even a a partnership between let's just make it up here apple and lucid volkswagen and toyota all of a sudden in the span of a year you could probably have 1020x the amount of cars out there collecting data .

Than tesla has and it could really happen like that yeah and you mentioned mobileye mobileye on their website if you go to their website it says we're in over 300 models of car and we're on more than a million vehicles today but what's not clear to me .

Is okay well are you taking that data and sending it to a computer you know a cloud source that is then training machine models are you doing what tesla's doing that stuff wasn't really clear and that's where to your point about like what do we really know i want to know more .

I'd love to know more about mobile and how they work or you mentioned nvidia or some of these other players that are offering services like this yeah so if you scroll down a little you'll see there's a little section where they talk about look at that 60 million vehicles worldwide so this is .

Maybe their sensor tech but does that also include taking data and you know sending it over like an lte connection to some sort of a cloud compute cluster that's the part that maybe is a little bit less clear right right and now chevy cruz does uh does something like this as well because .

Uh gm bought crews uh yeah i think they had like 2 000 employees now they got like 30 000 employees what's your take on on them do they have a chance do they have a shot i mean that's a they've got a pretty big valuation inside of um .

Gm now as well is is potentially does gm have a shot here in the fact that they now have this basically a potential mobile eye competitor inside their actual company so yeah i drove the new bolt uh in la a couple of uh weeks ago and they had the bolt euv will be the first affordable chevy with .

Supercruise which is their you know autopilot pretty much and it works very much like autopilot the main difference i noticed was there's a camera right above the steering wheel and what it does is it is watching your face so like while i was making a video i was trying to do a review so i was like oh .

Look over here and when my eyes like diverted away from the camera it would start blinking but if you just look at the road like you're supposed to and you're in the right position the car will drove for like 30 minutes with no intervention at all so the super cruise tech is .

Pretty impressive but it's i mean it's it's way behind where tesla is in terms of like the beta you've probably been seeing where you know a car will take you from your driveway to you know krispy kreme donuts and back yeah i think that is a topic of like further investigation they're pretty mum .

About it as well and the the mistake they've made i think is making this feature exclusive they're trying to make super crews like this luxury feature that's the stupid move like there's a reason why every tesla has all the cameras and all the sensors you need no matter what whether you buy it or not they want you .

To have it because even if you don't have full self driving tesla's watching your road they have that shadow drive mode they're projecting like hey here's what the computer should do well ricky did something different send that to tesla and figure out what happened so you're a part of this .

Grand data aggregation experiment whether or not you um you want to spend more money or not so first step for gm put this tech everywhere every car in 2020 something should have it because you need the number of cars on the road to to have any kind of a shot you can't .

Make this exclusive to the cadillac escalade and the you know that just doesn't make any sense like make this comment that's what is this shadow drive mode so i mean part of how they part about how tesla does does what they do is they build this .

Model to predict right because self-driving is not deterministic and what i mean by that is you can't build like as a software engineer i'm not going to write like if else if else like i'm not going to write code to handle self-driving what i have to do is build a model .

That will properly predict what to do because there's some crazy guy with a ladder on his pickup truck that comes flying off or a bed or some crazy thing right you can't predict all of it so what tesla's doing is they have this model that says okay the intent here is he's going to this .

Location what would you do computer and as long as what i'm doing the computer is doing is an agreement no problem but the minute uh there's some weird thing and i yank the wheel and i hard left and change lanes tesla's computer says that's not what i was gonna do what's going on .

And they're able to then take that and figure out like why did the human driver take intervention here and you didn't and they're able to like continually train their model and say you see there's a something that ran across the road that you didn't pick up in time and then they'll say oh okay we have a new label .

This is a a dog and we didn't know what the dog was we weren't looking for it but now we are and in the future when we get an over there update every tesla can look for dogs and understand how to how to interact and stuff that's kind of a rough example but yeah .

Huh okay got it so really it's like is gm just are they looking at this as too short term here by by trying to just upsell this as a feature yeah there's um i think there's some leadership adjustments that need to happen like i mentioned about supercruise .

Don't think of that as a feature like supercruise is like your door your entry point into being able to build this tech out yeah i think there's a there's a lack of maybe some leadership in terms of of thinking of it that way okay somebody here uh mentions that maybe it might not be cost effective to .

Do full self-driving on uh internal combustion engine cars why i think the argument there is end game and the end game would be imagine a robo taxi uh your tesla model x the drive train and the motor it could go a million miles without any problems your battery pack might be able to go a third of that like 300 000 miles .

So we're talking about a car the one you have already today that could do 300 000 miles probably with no maintenance or anything with the gas car you're constantly changing changing the oil and stuff so that makes it for a very annoying robo taxi car right imagine if you're doing like hundreds of miles a day and .

Every so many days you have to take it out and go drive it somewhere for an oil change and a spark plug change yeah that's why so as far as um for a robo taxi but just for consumers who like to sit in the car like you and not be bothered with driving that could be useful today even in an .

Ice car so i'm bothered by the idea of crews making me look at the road uh should i be am am i am i wrong to just i mean maybe i mean i look at the road but let me just take the devil's advocate approach here you know let's say i didn't want to look at the road all the time .

Uh you know is isn't it kind of annoying that this thing's beeping at you all the time and cruise and isn't isn't that a potentially uh an issue yeah i'm with you i was trying to think which is better having to like do the little jiggle that i have to do on my tesla or having to constantly be looking yeah .

I'm i'm with you i think i prefer the tesla approach as well but remember there is a uh there's a camera on the model 3s and wise and the future x's will have it too and tesla might like for regulatory purposes not that tesla would want to but the lawyers might get involved and say if you're going to have a fsd .

Claim or anything you better have a camera that can tell us that the minute the driver is not looking so i hate to tell you but that might be a requirement um i might need to start keeping my uh my tooth plan to keep my 2017 then first a little yeah exactly yeah no no camera in there .

Uh so can i just address one thing real quick yeah i was reading your comments section um man yeah your your viewers are awesome they mentioned uh george hopps who's the the founder of open pilot and uh uh what is it a comma ai okay so they have this kind of .

Open source self-driving software and they have this little they have a um a sensor pack you can buy that as a camera and a cpu and everything on board to do the full self-driving and so if you have a compatible car which are some of the newer models of hondas and toyotas and fords .

And stuff you can um you can get on and use it and he's an incredibly smart dude and again it's a pure computer vision solution and i'm a huge fan of comma ai i've actually they're in san diego i've i've thought about like reaching out to him and like i want to come work for you guys for a couple of .

Years but um really cool really cool stuff you should have him on george hawks he'd be a cool interview you'd love him that'd be awesome yeah jeez i'll i would glad i'd be happy to do that so is that a threat to tesla something like that um they're not selling cars .

You know so you still have to buy a ford escape or a tesla model x but then if you bought the car without it you could add it later i think it is a is a threat to tesla in the way that it'll keep them in check so i will say as much as i love tesla i have a couple of gripes with them one of them .

Is whenever they jack up the fsd prices it pisses me off it really does and the reason is you're selling a feature that is not even ready today you cannot use fsd today like you know so you're and you're making me pay now ten thousand dollars for it so the only hope consumers have of not paying ludicrous amounts of money like .

That it's competition right if mobile eye comes out and every new model of some brand has really great fsd or something that's when tesla has to kind of okay we can't just charge whatever we want basically what i'm saying is eventually it needs to be a commodity right imagine if .

Every car just dropped itself there's no question about it it's not even a valuable thing it's like a duh of course you have fsd that's the future i want to see as fast as possible got it so what about i mean isn't lucy going to have big issues when we start getting to uh you know maybe like a twenty five .

Thousand dollar tesla car or maybe even the cyber truck you know elon's talking about how the cyber truck is gonna be so freaking efficient because it's just you know there's no pain right i mean you're cutting so much crap out like how do you how do you actually compete with tesla .

Very very good question the reason why i'm very bullish with lucid is they're doing the model s car today that's an easier problem to solve and the reason why is it's a very high margin car and it's a low volume car i'm not worried about like battery supply constraint being a problem at .

That point when they then go to the gravity which is their suv also that'll be like when tesla went to the x also that'll be pretty smooth but you tell me like lucid in 2025 or something when they want to try to make the 35 000 car that is going to be a painful transition .

Unless the world completely like 10 axis battery supply uh production so i think that will be a challenge when you're trying to make a million evs that's really hard making 40 000 luxury evs luckily is a lot easier in terms of those constraints with supply chain what .

About some of these other competitors like you know fisker fisker had a massive rally this week sold off in in the crash the last few days but there's a lot of attention on fisker now there's a lot of attention on faraday thoughts on those yeah um did you ever know anybody who had a .

Karma back in the day it was that the original fisker yeah uh i never knew they were they were kind of a nightmare they um so one of the reasons why i really like lucid is they have an engineer in charge peter ronson's an engineer he worked at lucid elon saw him thought he was really smart .

Recruited him to tesla and then he went on fisker does not have that story fisker was very much run by a designer he barely even cared about engineering i remember there were some stories i read that um fisker like his engineering team would come in and say like you know we can't .

Do this this would be a bad idea and he's like no i want the car to do this and look like that and nothing else matters sort of a thing so he was clearly yeah it was uh somebody in your comment section says worst car ever he really i think didn't bring the .

Right technical stuff to the to the table for that and now they've had this reboot and i'm supposed to trust him and all but i think at this point you gotta show me something really great for me to kind of change my tune but um i'm i'm .

Not really that trusting of of fescue and faraday for different reasons they had a lot of hype when they came out the gate and they had recruited a lot of really smart people from tesla which is what you do right if you're making a new car company but i think they had some funding issues and they couldn't quite .

Get going um and i also didn't like the car right i mentioned i love the lucid air i've always thought it was a beautiful car that faraday futures car it kind of looks like a id4 a volkswagen 94 i think it's okay but it's just not something that really like .

Stuck out to me so i put both those cars in the category of show me something and i'd i'd happily change my tune but they i think you're not doing that yeah i mean has i'm trying to think if they're they've delayed their production which i probably would have expected you know .

Rivien and lucid have been trying to do this during a pandemic last year and now we're still in it they have a new factory that they just finished so i really do think they're going to be delaying production until later in the year but i think they'll do it because i think they've got the factory place and they've got the talent in .

Place and stuff but at some way in some level all three of them need to kind of show us something right imagine when the first cars get off the line and journalists have it to review and put it through its paces and stuff i think we need to see that for all of them the .

Id4 override volkswagen had some massive issues where they were supposed to be able to get over the air updates and this was front page like wall street journalist supposed to get over the air updates but then people actually had to drive them into the service center to get their over-the-air update .

You know is that a sign of just the failure of the legacy automakers is that just a sign that there's no there's no chance it's going to be companies like lucid and and tesla and maybe rivien that are going to take the cake yeah i i've been thinking about getting into consulting because i i have a .

Unique perspective of like the mechanical engineering software engineering of this all but it's not a coincidence that lucid is in the bay area silicon valley and so is tesla and these other companies really are not um the way software is written is is completely different compared to .

Like other industries like if you are a software engineer at boeing and you write like flight control software you update your software every five years it goes to like three years of validation it's nothing like the wrapped interval like at facebook facebook doesn't even do a qe cycle a quality assurance or .

Quality engineering cycle so what that means is they have unit tests which are automated tests that run so as long as you don't break any of those tests that means whatever new feature you added it doesn't break anything you're not going to like randomly like defriend all your friends or something .

They update they roll the update out to the mobile app to the web app and everything else so that process typically companies run what's called agile which is like a methodology of software development it's kind of nerdy it doesn't really matter but the point is i don't think volkswagen is running .

Scrum or agile and i don't think they're running sprints and they're not they're not configured the way a software company is in in quite the way i think tesla does i think tesla's very much a software company they sit down they have a board they prioritize their backlog of features and .

They say okay the next feature up is fart mode let's get that integrated and they build it and when they do they test it they validate it and they push it out over the air so i think vw the legacy makers are not traditional or they're not like silicon valley tech companies and what they probably should do is .

Build an office out here and just have them sit here recruit some people who could kind of show them some stuff and become that because that's going to be really important people thought oh vw is the biggest brand they'll have no problems it's been the opposite they've had problems at every turn .

Trying to do this the id3 as well with software jeez uh so okay so what about like in terms of investing or how heavy are you putting funds into let's say a loose adverse tesla like percentage-wise are you just like i got my test position everything else .

Is going into cciv or is it still like 90 10 or yeah yeah um yeah this the last few weeks have been pretty uh been pretty rough but i i'd say like 30 my portfolio is tesla which is the biggest share by a mile and i have like 15 in lucid .

And i've i'm actually down a little bit because i bought maybe around 30 after the announcement and stuff but i'm just going to do a long term hold on on both tesla as well i bought more tesla on the dip actually i might be up to maybe 35 or maybe even 40 on tesla because when they had that recent dip .

Um i bought more of that as well so that that should give you an idea of kind of roughly uh the numbers okay okay that makes that makes a lot of sense uh so what about rivian i mean there's there's maybe talk that maybe they'll go public or something like that would you invest in them too .

Yeah i would i love rivie and i love what they're doing and their their founder again is very technical you can clearly tell that's a theme that i look for what's interesting with rivien is and i think the reason they don't i mean they've been delayed right they were supposed to deliver cars a year ago .

Um but they don't get any flack the way lucid does and i think i've thought about this i think the reason why is review doesn't really compete with tesla at all like no one says rivian vs tesla those words have have you ever heard headline in any magazine or publication .

Or are they they kind of phrase it that way because i have no i mean they kind of honestly they just it seems like they've got some really cool concepts here but i mean how close are they even though maybe that's why we don't yeah no they should be close i mean they were supposed to deliver you know six .

Months ago and they're going to be delayed maybe again also later and end of this year but they've they've got production and they should be they should be producing cars but for whatever reason i think it's first of all the lifestyle brand of rivien um and their story they just get more .

Love than lucid does for whatever reason but i i love reviewing as well i mentioned that's the the pickup truck check check out the r1s which is the suv yeah that one yeah so i will say the front that headlight design isn't my favorite but if you look at every other angle of this car .

Tell me that's not like a baby range rover it's pretty nice yeah it's a good-looking car and it's more of a traditional car and it doesn't have the aerodynamic treatment so as a result the range isn't the best it has a really big battery but only 300 miles of range but it'll appeal what .

Kind of autonomy they'll use because i don't think they've announced either correct that's a yeah that's a good question i don't understand why like maybe maybe it's possible maybe i'm just overvaluing how important i think the self-driving is i mean to me i'm .

Never buying a car without self-driving again like why why why would i have anything else and so and i think once once more people realize like oh my gosh this self-driving is so amazing everybody else is gonna think that way too i mean maybe i'm early on it but .

Like why are they not prioritizing this it just blows my mind wildly challenging engineering problem um i did a video on my channel where i said which is harder a self-landing rocket like what spacex is doing or a self-driving car because i actually had a little twitter fight with somebody who .

Was like elon is a guy that could land a rocket of course he'll figure out self-driving actually self-driving is a much more challenging problem because it's not deterministic it's you can't you have to build a machine that predicts what to do and as opposed to like just writing code .

That'll handle the problem um i'll say this here's the here's the analogy i call you up and i go kevin i got this great idea let's build the next iphone we'll call it kos it's going to be our own operating system and we sit down and we're working on this problem that would be what you just said is kind of like an investor coming up to us and .

Going well where's minecraft on your where's the next killer games well building this new phone and this new operating system is hard enough and now you want me to solve self-driving like no probably no company has that kind of um they're not in a position to spend .

Money that way they have to just figure out how to make a car which is stupidly impossibly hard to begin with so i think that the key to rivien and lucid both is don't go down that path just yet partner with somebody try to get like lane keep you know like enhanced .

Autopilot i have that that's what i use just keep my lane for 500 miles on the five to the bay area and so get that like the maki has that the bolt has that get that first and foremost get the car built figure out margins you know like optimize make your stuff .

Better and cheaper and then bring in fsd so that might be the better approach and this by the way to your point this is where tesla's on top because they don't yeah they're doing both yeah wow i mean it just seems like tesla is like three or four companies in one i .

Mean you got the car the self-driving then they got energy i mean how can you not just go all in on tesla like why are you bothering with ccav um yeah good good question i think tesla's their market cap at this point the market is building in that in excitement into the price .

Currently at 500 billion dollars and like kind of like you know their p e ratio they're trading at i think that excitement is built into it so where does their stock go from here i think being like a one trillion dollar company in the next .

One year is probably possible but i think at this point now the market probably needs to see like the cyber truck one of your commenters mentioned about the cyber truck and manufacturing that that'll be a site to behold wait until you see cyber trucks in on la roads in rush hour traffic .

I can't wait i mean i don't want to be in russia or traffic but i can't wait for the cyber truck myself i mean that that's just fun talk about 500 miles of range there's no cheaper way right now than a cyber truck really why so for whatever reason the craziest part about that announcement to me it wasn't the specs it was the prices .

The cybertruck prices are ludicrous to me and one of your commenters mentioned about like the manufacturing processes not needing paint the stainless steel and how they stamp it very little in the way of curves you might just need like a machine to kind of like stamp over a couple of pieces .

And you're good to go so if they can leverage some of the tech and and this particular um aluminum is what they use on spacex with the starship so if they can kind of leverage some of that synergy between the research and engineering that happens over there with with tesla maybe they can build .

This car at a crazy lower margin than anybody else that's kind of the hope but the lucid air would cost you 160 the plaid plus would cost you 140 to get the 500 miles of range and i think the top of the line cyber truck which is what i i reserved is 70 000 if i'm not motor yeah .

Yeah crazy wow so uh what's what's going to come first i mean us um doing electric vtols or or robo taxis taking over you know is is one a bridge to the other or these two totally different industries that great question um the e-vitol i think i saw you interview .

Somebody talking about this last week maybe it was maybe it was the same warren interview i think ev tolls are a little bit of ways and the main reason i say that is because again regulatory i like engineering problems because i i feel confident that engineers can .

Solve engineering problems regulatory problems are a lot trickier and unfortunately that actually is a cornerstone yeah yeah that's at the cornerstone of both self-driving and uh evtol because the faa isn't messing around and you can imagine how hard their life is going to get when you and i are .

Taking our ev tolls to get coffee and now it's just going to get utterly crazy um the self-driving car will probably happen first even that i think will be a challenge for regulatory purposes even more than engineering you know plane aircraft today can fly themselves like .

There's no reason why you have to have a pilot you can program a plane to take off and land but we have two dudes that we play a lot of money every flight to sit in there and the reason is humans we don't trust machines and that will take time to change and so i think lawmakers are are kind of on the .

Weird situation where they have to try to figure out how does this new tech fit in while we don't like alienate our our viewers or you know our our citizens who don't want to see a world where there's like some car with no driver in it driving around their neighborhood where .

Their kids are riding their bikes like there's going to be challenges like that so uh how far away until i can fly around with with the evtels so current um energy density and even with some of the uh some of the improvements we've made and like tesla's making with the bigger pac cells and like tablets designs .

I think having any sort of like run time to be able to operate for any meaningful amount of time to get somewhere is probably still a little bit of a challenge i'm thinking the next breakthrough like if imagine solid state batteries i don't know if you've been keeping up with .

Quantum scape first quantum come on man that's stock yeah yeah it really did they have no um even forecast of profit for like five years yeah huge problems i don't even think they're gonna i mean one thing that sorry to interrupt but i mean like one thing that bugged me is .

Like it went so viral but they talked about it was almost solely because of the name solid state but they just have a lab tested solid they have nothing stable for actual battery packs like are we just so desperate for another investing opportunity or is there actually something at quantum .

I think they've got stuff but i think it's the former i think we are just desperate for the next investing opportunity um and this is where as bullish as i am on the eevee market i i would caution everybody to kind of slow down and remember that like remember like nicola and some .

Of this stuff you have to slow down and have a have a healthy level of of skepticism because sure like with quantum scape yeah that problem is a really challenging problem to solve um maybe we can have a call later and talk about solid state batteries that'd .

Be a fun chat as well but they probably have something there's probably some advancements that are happening i think five years out which is a long time for a public company now that has gone public to not have any revenue and even if they figure out the battery .

That still says nothing about manufacturing i think it's a licensing plan at that point right you license this out to other people to use your tech you know your you know your your glass uh electrolyte or something but or you get bought out by somebody like tesla well .

That sounds like a microvision play then because all they want to do is license or get bought out yeah it's a tough thing even when you figure out solid state you got to manufacture it now at volume at a cost right are you going to compete what's what's going to happen first .

Solid state batteries or like gene editing therapeutics you know that's another space where it's like you know that again could be a topic on its own too but like you know how how difficult is this on the scale here that's a good question i i will say as a mechanical engineer the engineering science that i find the .

Most utterly daunting is biology because biology is the one study that is not even repeatable like you and i can do the same thing and have a different outcome which is true for a plane like you put something in the air and it's going to fall at a predictable rate with gravity so biology is a crazy challenging thing .

Um i'm i'm curious i'm gonna flip this around and ask you what do you think solid state battery or um gene editing and and i want to believe this whole like the crispers and the invite and all these look i love the pfizer hey well we can we can take you know i mean what they're .

Doing even with the vaccines right we can take messenger rna and put it into your your body like a cassette tape and make your thighs glow which they did with mice or whatever in a lab like that stuff is all fascinating to me but i'll tell you the one thing i'm the most .

Hesitant to invest in is is bile because i mean all it takes is cool you edited this person then he died three months later that stock goes from you know 100 billion dollar market cap let's say to zero like that you know i've been like it's scary because we don't know like .

With programming we know one plus one is two but with bio i don't know you know let's we guess we'll see i'm i'm with you i don't invest in any of the biotech startups not because i don't think they're deeply fascinating but for that reason you know we used to like use mercury as .

In lead as medicine you know oops yeah exactly i'll talk about the opposite of what you intended yeah there's there's a lot of there's clear interest there's a lot of ailments around the world that people would love to see cures for but playing your commentary .

Just mentioned playing god is risky exactly and it's it doesn't take much to to derail something if even let's say two percent of people who take your treatment have like some catastrophic failures or or death or something two percent it adds really quick and it doesn't take .

Any human lives lost before people care oh well that's interesting i mean even even with how they're doing like the uh in vitro fertilizations these days where they can do like uh you know a gene diagram essentially on these these embryos and then you could decide well this kid's gonna have blue .

Eyes this kid's gonna have brown eyes which one do you want you know it's kind of weird i mean in that case you're not even changing anything you're just picking which that already is kind of interesting like oh let's pick that one uh very bizarre but uh yeah gene editing my gosh yeah way way above .

My thoughts or maybe capacity but okay so solid state if that's four or five years away why is neo talking about having like a partial solid state battery in 2022 for their new et7 is this is this marketing fugazi here what is this i think it is i it's one of these terms if you just .

Remember when um kodak kodak had i think it was like three years ago during the bitcoin rise of like 2017. kodak had this uh cryptocurrency and they had this blockchain announcement and their stock just had this one day spike or something it was kind of the thing to talk about in 2017 2018 was like a blockchain .

Um i think in 2021 if you're especially in this space if you talk about a solid state battery i just feel like that just means you traded a higher multiple or something just by talking clickbait it's clickbait in a way right toyota's said the same thing they were supposed .

To have a solid state battery that they were going to unveil at the tokyo olympics in 2020 which was all pushed back but i'm going to go out for them and say they're not they might have one and by the way we do have solid state batteries like pacemakers and stuff use a solid-state battery but it's .

Wildly expensive they you know they might not have the cycle life of other batteries there's other challenges you have to solve for so really the point is commercializing it when can i get a commercialized solid state battery for cheaper than what tesla is paying for their cells now that's when i .

Well on that i've never thought about this before but how do you how do the pacemakers not run out of battery that's it yeah that's a good question um well there might be some sort of i mean they're very low um voltage devices maybe there's some way of recharging .

While they're inside of you i'm curious if somebody in the in the comments section has an answer to that or they might like some sort of a maintenance interval um yeah bizarre okay yeah don't want to miss that maintenance date jeez well bio just makes me nervous okay so .

Now but you mentioned toyota here on solid state isn't toyota the one that's like ah we're not really gonna focus on evs we're not really gonna focus on self-driving that much right now we're just going to kind of keep doing us uh you know what are can we even trust them as far as we can throw them .

At this point i'm with you and i put honda in the same category so i mentioned this like a couple of years ago but i kind of predicted that toyota and honda would be the slowest to adapt and the reason is twofold first and this might be biased but i think honda and toyota make the best .

Engines like gasoline engines on earth if i were to buy a gas car i've always been a honda person if i were to buy an suv i'd buy toyota they're just really good at it first of all so when you're really good at something the last thing you want to do is give up your advantage that thing keeping other people from .

Competing with you like if you and i got together and thought let's build a car company we would never have done that in the age of gas engine cars because you and i until the day we die we'll probably never build an engine that could compete with these guys but in the electric motor world we could .

We could you and i could get in your garage and build an ev that could be pretty cool decent uh we market it well maybe we'll sell a couple so they have that advantage um the second thing is they sell a lot of their cars in north america and north america .

Typically is way later on down the road in terms of uh regulation and stuff so in europe they're gonna ban the sale of gas cars the next five years in some places yeah so vw who's also a big manufacturer they sell more in europe so i always said vw will get their act together first .

Because they'll lose out quicker but honda and toyota who are going to be selling cars in america and america you know we go back and forth the last president pretty much undid everything that the one before that did it just you're gonna be able to get out away not making evs for a longer period of time .

So i my prediction was that toyota and honda would be the last to make that change for that reason um i think they have the engineering clout to do it but they have no market advantages they have to go try to get cells like everybody else so you're on the same .

Footing as everybody else where for the last 30 years of your existence you have dominated because nobody can compete with you because of your market advantage being so strong but this is also why people are happy because we now have a new frontier that .

The loving the level playing field allows new people to come in and compete got it what about you know another question here materials you know i get this all the time people are like okay well i like kevin you're investing in tesla cool you do you but i'm gonna go buy mp materials the lithium miners i'm .

Going to get my copper because you got to have copper in the coils on the motor why don't we just go buy up all the materials personally i i'm not a customer of materials i i don't make it a habit to buy copper coils so i have no freaking clue which company would even start with is .

Is that just um like why wouldn't you just buy the thing why would you buy the materials and what's your take on that yeah i think in terms of excitement you're not going to get the same level of excitement if you're the material supply side as you would if you're the aggregator .

The person who builds something so just let's just talk stock if you're building tesla or lucid motors you're going to trade a much higher multiple because you're sexy you're glamorous you have a there's something about you that people see they see a car driving down the road they see the marketing material and the .

Materials and the cool tech whereas if you're you know piedmont lithium or you're one of these guys who's on the supply chain side it's just not as glamorous or as sexy but that doesn't mean that it's not going to be a profitable thing to be in so as far as good opportunities for investing yeah i think they're great .

Opportunities for investing i don't have you know all the money in the world so i have to pick and choose my battles and yeah you know i'm a believer that you should try to invest in a handful of things that you can research really well as opposed to just throwing your money .

In tons of different places and it's impossible to keep on top of the news and stuff so i think those are good investments i think material lithium you mentioned all the copper and manganese and nickel not so much cobalt i think we're going to get away from cobalt because of .

The human cost of that one but those are good investment opportunities for sure and if you if you have like a geology background or you're more hip to that part of the business and you have insight there which i don't have personally i think that might make make for a .

Better investment any need for these tunnels if we have full self-driving you know elon in the boring tunnel like well who cares if we have full self-driving i mean i've always i remember being seven years old and thinking to myself it was my my father and i we used to .

Have these conversations obviously this was way before evs i mean we were talking 21 22 years ago now that's scary uh but i remember these and i'm thinking remember talking with my dad about why is it that when we're at a red light you know seven years old asking this question .

Why is it that when we're at a red light and we're way back in traffic it takes so long for us to start going when the light turns green and in theory if everybody was on like a conveyor belt or all computers we could all just if we all literally hit the gas at the same exact second with the same .

Acceleration we wouldn't like traffic would be so much more efficient and in theory i don't think there would exist traffic jams and there wouldn't be a need for tunnels is our tunnels a waste of time if we go full charge driving everything i actually think i think they they would .

Be i think there's two other things at play as well i think with the pandemic we have shifted how we kind of work we've done more online calls and done more meetings and you know virtually so as a result i wouldn't be surprised if more companies especially interest of .

Lowering carbon emissions let their employees work from home two or three days a week so we start to do that and like traffic decreases to begin with and then part two of that is the self-driving robo taxi do you follow that company uh zuke's i think it was z-o-o-x which amazon bought .

That little that little quirky looking thing yeah so that was a that was a glimpse of a of a ride-hailing platform car that was built for that purpose it doesn't look like a car that you and i drive because well if you're building a robo taxi network don't build .

It like a car you've traditionally built make it perfectly built for that so my vision of a robo-taxi car would be like pods imagine you've got your falcon wing doors on your ex imagine if there were a couple of those and when your car pulls up your door opens up you go and sit down you have a private little cocoon if you .

Will you have a little laptop and you do your work you don't even know if people are in the car with you if you're traveling with your wife you can put a little window down and you can see each other but if you don't know the people you're driving with you put it up so now you're servicing .

Five or six people at a time and if you start to do that and bring the prices down to where they're cheaper than a subway ticket yeah why yeah there it is right there um i think it looks kind of cool but i think this is a look at what like urban mobility might look like in a world when you don't need a driver per .

Se huh yeah i mean that's crazy i mean but this this technology here i mean is i mean how far away is this i mean look it looks cool but i mean i mean i know waymo's doing it but aren't they all completely unmapped streets and isn't .

That gonna take forever yeah i actually don't know how this one is is um doing the self-driving aspect i see a bunch of what appears to be cameras hopefully it's computer vision so really at the heart of this debate um and this is this is another one that .

I get i get a lot of comments about because elon has come out and called lidar stupid and a waste of time yeah so tesla and most people's approach is computer vision and you have to have computer vision because if you don't have computer vision meaning you have a camera looking out and an .

Algorithm that's doing like tracking and and figuring out what things are then you can't do things like read a stop sign lidar can't make out a stop sign lidar can tell you there's a sign at 48 feet from here but it can't read the stop sign right so computer vision is king no doubt about it .

If you don't have a really great computer vision platform you're not going to have the general solution meaning a car that could just go anywhere and figure things out like you and i could i could drop you in your model x in hawaii a place some place you've never been .

And you'll figure out how to drive because your human brain can figure that out the weymouth solution is like a high definition lidar map what's interesting is i wouldn't actually be surprised if waymo was operating in little select cities before tesla but .

Not able to operate everywhere so if you do a high definition lidar map you drive around chicago or la or san diego and you make this map and then you know what to expect it's a huge amount of data but then you know what to do in your turning and stuff .

Um tesla doesn't do that tesla says i have a camera so i'll do what the human does and this is what george hotz always talks about too from comma.ai he says be a person a person doesn't have a high definition map and have it all stored he sees a turn and he figures out what .

To do he figures out if is there somebody in my way should i stop so um i think waymo might actually beat tesla to market in select cities but as far as like the general solution tesla's that's not even close they've got clarified computer v is emulating .

The human's eye whereas lidar is trying to use a completely different system yeah lidar is kind of like remember daredevil where he's blind and he does this thing where he kind of senses what's around him that's kind of lidar lidar is a you know visual spectrum laser that is hit hit something and then bounces .

Back and we can measure the delay between sending that pulse and getting it back and figuring out the speed of light is constant so therefore you can figure out how far to wait how far away it is so elon calls it a cro like a a crutch you know like .

Something just to kind of get it's like a means to an end uh and he's one of the reasons he hasn't uh adopted it so and then you also mentioned you can't like identify what something is in lidar is is that you're kind of on the same wavelength there is it because lidar like you said it can't identify a .

Stop sign it's like we see something that's you know an octagon but we don't know what it is because we can't is that one of the the big pros of computer vision i think yeah when he says when elon says that it's a crutch what he's saying is if you and i let's .

Say you and i make a company and we're going to try to solve self-driving and we want to do it as fast as possible we will do lidar because lidar will get us there quicker we could figure out like from a lidar map where to turn and what to do more quickly than we could figure out computer vision computer vision is .

Basically like making a human who can figure out how to drive a car right it's a harder problem but at the end you have a more general solution one thing i say though is why not have both like if like in the case of some of these car companies a lucid has lidar and has computer .

Vision has tons of cameras and stuff might there be a scenario that we're not thinking of where lidar might come in handy um sun is low on the horizon maybe some glare one of your commenters mentioned fog the challenge with fog is it might impede lidar as well because it is a .

Visible light spectrum you know light spectrum technology so i'm not sure how well lidar would work in fog but there's going to be weather patterns and conditions and stuff that for me i'm thinking redundancy is not maybe a bad thing why not have both even if you .

99 of the time use computer vision why not have lidar as backup then again elon's also got radar so like for example if we're in the fog the radar should still work yep yep radar works well in the fog but radar is generally a little bit less fidelity you can't get that high .

Definition mapping of something like a lidar and that just has to do with how big the waves are and kind of you can get a general idea of shapes and stuff but you're not going to be able to like detect the crisp corners of like an octagon of a stop sign and stuff but yeah radar is the key to to that .

Is that because it what radar's just a bigger wavelength and it's it's not as fine okay okay interesting uh so but then then maybe there's a distance factor too because usually what longer wavelength would mean further distance right and in terms of you can see further maybe .

Yeah and i actually think the way some of these companies do it is they have like a mid medium and long range radar stack so they're able to kind of resolve in in all those spectrums but don't forget too you need to have computers that can take all this information and figure out something .

And there's also gps one of your your viewers mentions there's also the gps data so we have to take all this in real time and figure this out you know that's a tough problem to solve and they're doing this at like 60 frames a second so you can imagine the the computer .

Workload on something like that and one of the comments of series just reminded me of this uh infrared we've got sandy monroe he mentioned that he thinks tesla might have to adopt infrared in in the future can can you speak to that a little bit look i mean i've got a fleaer .

I get infrared i i point it on a wall i go oh damn builder missed some insulation there actually happened it's pretty hilarious but uh you know beyond that like okay why why why might i need that in a car for self-driving so what's what's interesting is .

Like any camera like if you grab your pocket camera or phone camera it detects infrared automatically what most companies do is they add a filter to block infrared because you don't want infrared screwing up your visual spectrum photo right okay so .

Cameras and inherently detect infrared it's like built in but it will screw up your image if you didn't block it if you wanted like a nice crisp iphone shot that being said if they wanted to do something with infrared it might just be as simple as you know one of the cameras .

Has a filter or like a there's some problem that they can solve i will say this and i'm curious what your i'm gonna flip this around on you a lot of people on twitter always uh have this idea that my car today my tesla has everything it needs for full self-driving that's amazing .

And i've always said are you sure are you 100 sure that we don't need a slightly higher resolution camera are you sure we don't need this or that it's a it's a hedge i actually i wouldn't be surprised if tesla doesn't have to do some sort of retrofit to change some .

Little detail like for example if you look at your dash cam footage it's really low resolution it looks really bad and the reason why is that on purpose they use a very low megapixel camera first of all more light per pixel which is good better in the low light and also less computer workload if .

You're trying to take like a 4k image in 60 frames per second real-time detect motion of objects we're talking huge amounts of computer workload so right maybe in the future we'll get there but if you're telling me that with our current socs with our current cameras at 1.5 .

Megapixels do we have all the hardware we would ever need for full self driving i'm not 100 convinced of that what do you think i have uh regularly believed that there is a real possibility that for certain edge case scenarios like i watched some of these full self-driving .

Videos and and i see the tesla with the full self-driving betas and maybe they're going to fix the betas but totally miss depth of of street so an example would be a one that comes to mind is uh car goes up to a left turn waits for traffic to pass fine that's easy .

Turns left railroad track road falls after the railroad track something that a human would slow down for the tesla's plowing right through it and it's very uncomfortable probably not safe you know that's just one example i wouldn't be shocked if in the future they personally i think they should just buy microvision .

But they buy microvision and just okay we're going to go swap out everybody's uh you know rear view mirror and in the little front of that it's going to be the little lidar sensor and there we go we get our we get our cheap lidar we figure out how to get the cost down of that .

But we have that as a backup as well yeah i'd look i don't need a spinning dome on the roof to tell me you know how the size of the semi truck behind me i don't care i just but what's in front of me is very important wouldn't surprise me yeah well said i agree i i've been in a car with fsd i had a .

Kind of a similar story the harder stuff it did really well and then yeah at one point we'll put to a stop sign very obvious that the car in front of us is about to turn left you know in front of us off to the right though we should wait because we came later .

And the car just started speeding up like right as the car is right in front of us so um i mean that's just they need more time to work out every possible scenario but yeah you're right when you talk about like skew angles as you're trying to resolve stuff further off into the top and the right .

You know the camera quality degrades just optics just physics and stuff so yeah it there are some challenges that maybe having some redundancy is not the not the worst idea but we'll see how they how they progress they're supposed to have an fsd beta update .

Um coming out soon and yeah with each iteration it gets better but it'll be interesting i mean i'm i'm bullish but i i'm also a little skeptical that they might have to because the thing that bothers me is nobody else is doing solely what elon is doing everybody else .

Everyone else some form of lidar it's scary yeah i mean if there's one person i wouldn't bet against with elon but at the same time um i think when elon made those decisions back in the days we were talking about like waymo this ridiculous dish on top of a minivan it's .

Just a i mean who wants to drive that thing around but they've miniaturized it there's companies who have miniaturized it and brought the cost down to a point where adding lidar isn't cost prohibitive and if you have it and you don't need it and you never really use it much that that's fine but um to say that .

We're not going to include it at all is i mean that's just one less tool in your toolkit as an engineer i i kind of think why not let some of these different things emerge like i'm not completely against hydrogen i'm happy to see some company trying to figure out a cheap and clean way to .

Produce hydrogen you can do that great um i don't think they have much of a place in commercial cars but i'm a believer in letting companies like run things to ground and figure out what sticks you know do you think it's just elon's obsession with uh less parts less cost let's get to that 25 000 car .

Cut cut cut cut you know is that is this just elon's personality of uh of uh stubbornness uh you know yeah i kind of liken him to um to steve jobs they're they're two kind of the reality distortion field kind of people people who can just completely change the what what seems .

Possible and impossible i think elon is very much the same same way as jobs that makes them difficult to work for you know i've i know some friends i've worked with tesla and they work mad hours that's why i have no interest in applying to work at tesla is i don't i'm not .

Trying to work 90 hours a week at this point in my life i have kids and stuff but i think that is part of it you know steve jobs famously said that we're not going to ever build a big iphone like he didn't care if you wanted it like that steve that's steve jobs for you .

He does not care what you think he does not care if you want a big phone he believes phones should be three and a half inches tiny he was wrong on that when and when he passed away i think the one thing that apple has done probably better after he left because i was a huge jobs fan too is make massive phones you .

Know phones are like seven inches big now the iphone is probably what jobs thought of as like an ipad not too long ago so i think elon is similar he's very very stubborn on things he's been right a lot he's i mean with fsd he kind of was a little early to the game he said he'd have it like a couple of years .

Ago but um i understand where he was coming from at the time but i really think if lidar sensors are miniaturized and the cost comes down to a point where they're just a commodity that you just stick on your car um i can't think of any good reason why you wouldn't have it and if you don't .

Really ever need it and your computer computer vision is that great great but you have one more thing if you will wow yeah that makes sense so i mean the steve jobs this that kind of made me think a little bit back to your fisker comment though henry i think his last name is fiscal right yeah henry .

Uh or henrik uh designed her over fiscal fisker one of your arguments was that he's you know trying to do things not considering the engineer didn't steve jobs do that remember with that like bulbous mac it's like no no i want it to be this shape and figure it out it's like we .

Can't do round the chips are square and he basically made him do it anyway uh is that or is this guy i mean like is is that possible is that fair or is he just totally missing it anyway i think that's fair good point very good point i think it's fair he did some things that were .

Questionable remember the antenna gate thing he wanted this beautiful stainless steel band you're holding it wrong you're telling me that i'm holding my phone wrong that was how he came out and his people had to like shut him up and issue like free bumpers for a while yeah i actually got one of those free .

Bumpers but what's so weird is they still have that now you know the new twill also has that i guess they've just figured out how to figure it out right this point at this point when you held the old one or whatever uh like your signal went from like five bars to zero .

Yeah and i remember he famously came out and he was like chewing people off for holding his phone wrong you know that's that's jobs for you right i don't think i don't think uh henrik fisker is quite jobs but i think as far as like the obsession with design yeah that's fair that's probably um but jobs had really .

Smart engineers around him too like you gotta have both and maybe henry doesn't we don't know or hendrick so you know i'd love to know more about them fair what uh you mentioned hydrogen i i keep referring to this as like a 2030s dream uh is it closer than we think the really the challenging thing with hydrogen is .

There's no clean way of of of sourcing it the clean way of sourcing would be like having a bunch of solar panels which is kind of what trevor milton said he had at his hq at nicola and then running like free electricity from the sun to run electrolysis to separate the .

Hydrogen from the oxygen atom from water but that problem is it's really expensive like the end result of how much hydrogen you have is way less than if you just took that solar energy stuck in a battery right now right like a power wall for example so so for that reason the way we really .

Have hydrogen today is as a kind of a byproduct of like fossil fuel fracking and things like hydrogen forming from natural gas extraction so that's not a clean energy at all and that's kind of the thing about it that people haven't really talked about but imagine a world where there's some .

Breakthrough radical new technology that is able to separate hydrogen in a very clean way that's exciting to me i mean there's there's applications for hydrogen especially imagine like huge long-haul shipping you know like all the cargo ships out there maybe like aircraft potentially there's .

Challenges too you have to have a cylindrical cylinder to keep high pressure hydrogen people think of the hindenburg you know there's challenges there too but um i think the challenge is going to be how do we get it and if we have energy why not just stick .

In a battery we already do that now yeah that's the point that's the drawback i see okay yeah it's it's kind of funny too because isn't isn't hindenburg the short seller that ended up exposing nicola yeah in bergson yeah the irony was .

Was odd point at that point so okay uh so what do you think like what what's the year that hydrogen actually goes mainstream and we have the infrastructure for it uh or or does it ever like is it is it a is there any chance of it being a 2020s thing i don't think we're going to see okay my .

Prediction is we're not going to see like hydrogen charging stations like we have gas stations now because hydrogen doesn't make enough sense for a commercial car i think we're already showing evs that can go in the next couple of years like a .

Million miles there's just going to be no need for hydrogen it's just way simpler and i can make electricity at home remember that if we embrace hydrogen we are basically giving chevron and exxon mobil like leverage over us for the rest of our lives again like we have with oil .

They basically hold all the cards whereas like i i have enough solar that if i charge my car at the right times i can charge my car from the sun and my utility company has no idea i even exist because my bill is zero i can't do that with hydrogen not not easily anyway .

I guess i could stick some leaves into them in some salt water and try to extract hydrogen but not practically troll assistant that's expensive to do on its own too so ah okay so so no no hydrogen infrastructure coming to my home anytime soon .

What about like solar when are they gonna make these darn panels more efficient you're an engineer these things are like what nineteen twenty percent efficient i mean there's some 21s out there you know yeah it's it's uh okay so i mean it's um it seems like there's so much more potential for solar .

When are we gonna get this to even 30 40 efficiency yeah at this point there's going to need to be some sort of a breakthrough with um the photo voltaic elements and things that go into it because we've been hovering around this point for a while that's usually a good telltale sign of like how mature .

Something is um if anybody out there thinks like the internal combustion engine car is going to be 70 efficient one day it will never be because we we've had 100 years with it and look what's happened like in 100 years we've gotten to around you know 20 30 percent right with um with solar it kind of .

Feels the same way but the good news is it's so cheap now even though it's not 100 efficient it's keeping that heat off your roof which keeps your attic cooler which keeps your electric uh your your cooling bill's cheaper and it's so cheap now that you know tesla's selling at a dollar .

Fifty a watt right which means if you get a five kilowatt system it's not you know not necessarily a deal breaker in terms of breaking the bank so it doesn't need to be more efficient how much more efficient does it have to be i mean that's true i mean yeah you spend even if you spend 10 grand on a system .

You know after tax credits or whatever hey if that saves you a couple hundred bucks a month that's saving you after tax dollars i mean that's a nice roi and those things probably aren't going to go bad for 30 40 years so hey why not all right and you're you're uh your audience is clearly very very smart somebody in the .

Audience just mentioned the key is really not the solar we have so much solar in california i don't know if you know this but at really peak times in the summer time we curtail generation meaning we throw it away today today in california yeah the problem is we don't have storage .

What was that so so you're saying there's there's so much we don't even need it at some points that they just like yeah like high noon in the summer time we have so much generation that there's just no demand for it and so the real challenge with electricity is the uh projecting .

The demand right so that's what the grid has to do we right now we're at work so our homes aren't using electricity but then we come home at five o'clock and then we turn the air conditioning on or saturday sunday you have to have electricity ready whenever a person might need it how do you .

Forecast that that's tough that's what batteries kind of solve with batteries if there's tons of sun shining well stick that all into the battery pack and then suddenly if everyone's turning on their air conditioning or you know they're in britain they always say they're kettles right so .

After their favorite tv show at seven o'clock on bbc they all turn on their kettles so one of the main major challenges in in the uk is like there's a seven o'clock huge spike of demand that they have to be ready for when everybody's turning on their kettles i know it .

Sounds funny but i guess we don't drink cats electricity then over there for their kettles yeah those little thousand watt electric kettles they you know if everyone's turning it on at the same time it could add up so a battery solves all of that by letting us generate wind electricity whenever that .

Happens and then storing it for when we need it so if you were a grid operator you would love to see that otherwise the challenge is the solar duct curve you've probably heard of there's this massive solar generation from you know 9 00 a.m till 4 or 5 p.m .

Well that's great but we have this nuclear power plant that you can't turn off so what are we going to do with that we can't just turn it on and off so then they have peaker power plants which are typically natural gas maybe coal and those they turn on and off depending on when they project demand so .

This is the crazy life of a grid operator they have to basically be like a you know projecting the future of demand and try to supply it so the key in the next five years if you want to clean up our act and make a grid that's more sustainable is energy storage .

Either via battery maybe hydrogen i don't know you know there's even like mechanical forms there's companies that will lift weight and stack it onto a tall tower when there's extra solar and then when the sun goes down they can drop those weights and run a generator and get the power back or hydro right we can run .

Water uphill and run it back down but energy storage is the key that is interesting yeah because i mean electricity demand is instantaneous and electricity moves pretty sure i don't know through wires maybe you would know pretty much light it moves pretty much right so .

So in that case uh you've got you can if everybody turns on their kettles at the same time the generators operating at the grid they're instantaneously getting put under an exponential larger amount of load or draw that they need to provide for and batteries might .

Be able to just instantly switch on and provide that that relief for the system is what you're suggesting yeah instead of having to turn on a natural gas plant because even if you have nuclear which is you know no carbon emissions and solar and everything else the minute .

Those kettles turn on you got to go dirty again and burn burn dinosaurs right but why uh why are people so anti the nuclear power yeah it's a um talking about like hydrogen the hindenburg right we have a memory of it nobody thinks warm and fuzzy when they .

Think nuclear power we think of war right now then we think of like fukushima and chernobyl bad things could happen it's a incredibly destructive force and what's really scary about nuclear is if you screw up you're going to negatively impact a place for like a .

Hundred thousand years you're gonna make a place uninhabitable right like chernobyl's there aren't there aren't new apartment buildings being built over there like the area is kind of just off limits you can't you can't go there so i don't want to see a lot of the world fall into that .

I do think it's a good clean option especially as a bridge we've probably heard the term abridged tech which means we're not really fully ready we don't have enough batteries even right now for all the evs so how we're going to have grid batteries too right so we're going to need a bridge and so i .

I'm hoping that we keep our nuclear power plants in commission for the next 10 years or so until we have a good answer to that question yeah because after fukushima i i always thought it was neat that germany for example had tons of of these power plants the nuclear power .

Plants but after fukushima they just shut them all down probably not instantaneously over time they shut them all down uh and they you know they do a lot of solar and wind in germany as well but i just thought i thought to myself like ah i mean like i know there was an accident but .

It just it feels like a waste now because now we're potentially offsetting that with natural gas and coal uh when when you know you have the facilities there it's just all because of that that the image or risk mitigation is is it really that risky yeah part of it too is there's a natural kind .

Of maintenance cycle so you know if a natural if a nuclear power plant was for 20 years how many of germany's were nearing that point you know did they have plants that they were like okay we either spend a billion dollars upgraded to modern code and then you know re-change the reactor .

Fuels and get going again or do we just say you know what screw it let's just shut it down so there's like a recurring cost to keeping these things open and as renew like the wind and solar is getting cheaper and cheaper it might have been a business decision as well um yeah and part of this public outcry .

If you're the person who lives in that neighborhood and fukushima just happened and you know you're five miles from a plan how do you feel are you writing your congress people probably you know you're probably right i think if you flip it and say kevin would you live next to a nuclear power plant i .

Think the answer would be a hard no it's so fair yeah i'll take a pass i do that's a good one so okay like what do you think about end phase you know just hitting stocks here have you ever done a deep dive on end phase huge fan event phase i got solar in 2010 and when i did yeah yeah very early and .

When i did my installer told me you got these tall trees you should go with this little company called enphase they make microinverters and here's some of the benefits they last longer because each inverter deals with less current you know less electricity so as a result they don't get as hot they last longer .

If any one of them fails it doesn't affect the rest of them and shading on one panel won't affect the other so i was all for it i my m phase m215s are now 10 years old they have never skipped a beat they record data sent to my little end phase account in the cloud and i can show you .

10 years of constant data in 10 years i've changed computers i've bought new cars new refrigerators and i have the same inverters man i am i'm such a fan i actually remember the stupidest investing thing i ever did was i believed in that phase and i bought their stock early on for .

A long time it just laid dormant right and finally there was a period maybe like four or five years ago where it went from three four dollars to six or seven dollars and i was like oh my gosh i just 2x my money and i sold thinking it might never come back to that again .

And it has been on a tear ever since and every time i look at it 50 oh they overvalued 100 they're just yeah they're a fantastic company and they had this vision for the micro inverter which to be honest i kind of think every panel should just have one built in in the future maybe they .

Partner with somebody but i'm i'm a fan i'm an owner i've had 10 years of data with it i'm a shareholder and i love that company why don't they make their own panel the building so tesla does the solar glass roof tile which is a wholly new product category but you're not going to .

See a lot of companies trying to build solar panels because it is so commoditized at this point it's a zero it's a zero business i mean talk about how you're gonna compete with the chinese companies that are producing these by the bajillions you're never gonna compete unless you're .

Sunpower which is an american company that manufactures solar and they're way more efficient like they have the most cutting edge tech i think they might even have like a 23 or 24 uh efficient panel so sun power is a is a leading cutting edge technology company .

But the reality is if i can just get a cheap brand for 20 efficient for a third of the price that's a tough proposition so i don't think any phase will ever manufacture cells or solar panels i think it's a terrible idea but they should partner with people and start having them .

Built in talk about how easy of a install process that would be yeah but it could if tesla goes super mainstream here with energy isn't there a big risk to end phase great question that's why i've lowered my holdings with end phase for that reason so i've i have some people in the .

Industry that work in different areas like for example i partner with a company called drone quote where they have no sales people they'll fly a drone they'll send your information and have many companies bid on your on your uh project so i asked them like how does tesla's new pricing is that .

Going to like destroy your business so far what they've found is there are people looking and they want to compete with tesla or they want to see your bid compete but tesla doesn't operate everywhere so that's the first thing and also they're one company and .

Um if the federal tax credit goes away will tesla's prices go back up there's just some questions i think to answer but to answer your point yeah depending on how large tesla grows their sales team and their install teams and how much business they they do it would affect end phase .

Because they don't use micromotors they use solar optimizers and a grid grid tie inverter that they're building now yeah yeah to the much to the demise of uh was it solar edge i think solar edge yeah yeah so uh yeah i mean the thing about .

The one thing that scares me about both lucid and end phase is seriously my biggest investment tesla is that tesla's just going to literally monopolize uh and i i know that sounds so crazy because we've had you know there there are hundreds of car .

Companies even now there's so much car competition i mean we could rattle off 10 15 20 really popular car companies very easily but uh with with this whole revolution of this self-driving and this energy transformation tesla basically i feel like they're just .

Dumping their panels and batteries at a cost or at a loss just to gain market share here but i feel like they're just setting up to be a an insane monopoly it's one of the reasons i think they're undervalued which people hear me say that and i always get comments like you're an idiot .

Fine but yeah i mean i i don't know isn't that possible that kathy's gonna be right kathy wood it's gonna be winner take most and you know tesla's a monopoly yeah with solar you know no one is going oh i want to get a other brand or they don't care it's a solar product like .

Get me solar and leave me alone and i want to make money so i think they're eating into the business in the solar industry is gonna be a thing but you gotta remember like there's taste involved with cars that's kind of the difference to me so even if i mean so tesla's still .

Making the same model s which means they still haven't finished out their product roadmap as far as like all their models before they talk about refreshing right the model x is still the same one that you have the one you bought so when they refresh it what if someone just prefers the rivian r1s .

You know what if they prefer the r1t to the cyber truck so taste comes into play um when you when you talk about commodities like solar no one cares about the brand name like i don't even know i do know but i'm an exception the average person has no clue what .

Panel brand they have up there they don't care like i want a 350 watt panel put them on my roof and i'm on my way but with cars and stuff there's the apple fact right everyone knows what brand of smartphone they have so even if android or some company dominates and .

They're the best sellers there's still room for how many smartphone companies are there i think the smartphone industry might be a a good way to think about it especially considering you've got the brand loyalty tesla has brand loyalty like nobody in fact i might argue they .

Have more brand loyalty than even apple at this point if you're making a tesla product people want that right so lucid and ruby and have their work cut out for them for that reason you have to be compelling and different enough and have everything else figured out to be .

Able to compete so i think it's going to be fierce but i do think human taste just the fact that like for example if there was world's best peanut butter they had one brand at costco world's best peanut butter and then suddenly ricky's peanut butter shows up you might .

Buy it because even if you knew this is the world's best peanut butter just that curiosity of people have to let's try the second one maybe there's something crazy about it that i'll like better because even if you say the best that's a subjective thing so as long as like your favorite car is subjective .

Like do you buy a porsche 911 do you buy a aston martin they're all good cars technically there's probably one that's faster around the track but it's subjective so as long as we have that i think there will be room for others to to succeed okay okay so uh .

I mean then then maybe the future of like the uh the end phase might be let's say doing the mega packs right competing for cities or grid infrastructure or something like that uh but then it's just gonna become a price competition but uh you know nobody cares if i've got .

The q cells or the sun power panels or whatever it's just you know what what's my money savings and that's it well so for end phase though you have to remember even tesla's inverter do you know i mean have you it sounds like you've been following this pretty .

Closely what's their warranty oh the end phase versus tesla yeah i don't know what tesla is there is yeah there is an engineering advantage that end face has which is because all they're doing is inverting the dc from one panel they're never getting that hot .

Whereas if you have like 20 panels and they're all running down this huge wire to one central inverter you're inverting like thousands of watts of energy which means huge high energy uh huge heat and shorter lifetimes like the average string inverter lasts ten years .

And end phase has a 25-year warranty and honestly they might last 30 years because of the architecture of how they have that built so if tesla has their own inverter but they're going for like low cost there might still be buyers that go you know what i'd rather have the end phase because .

I have shading problems and i don't want to deal with my panels in 10 years or have somebody come out and change this inverter so i always thought it was funny the uh solar leasing companies they would always come you know knock on your doors oh here sign up for a 20-year contract or whatever i always thought i felt it was funny .

They see it seemed like they were always using the most inexpensive product that they could that would probably not last more than 10 years and then after six or seven years they try to sell it to you to get it off their liability but uh so i i don't know where tesla .

Falls in that i mean i know they bought solar city which used to be one of those right right i think i've heard they use q cells i think they have a a couple of different vendors that they work with but they're probably all made in china cells for various reasons and stuff the solar .

Roof you know i i hear people maybe they replace their concrete tile roofs with the solar roofs but i mean for most people who've got like a regular comp shingle roof i don't think anybody's putting this solar roof on uh or that that isn't just trying to .

Spend money to spend it you know when does how does how does that even economically make sense like why wouldn't i just lease the panels from tesla for 50 bucks a month why replace my whole roof with something that's 30 grand when i could spend nine and have a new comp roof you know i think you're right so they've gone .

Through three iterations to get to the point that they are now in terms of being able to market this and commercialize it i think now they're at the point where it's a luxury product so i have a concrete tile roof so it's not as cool as like slate but it's thick and it'll last like .

A hundred years right so i'm not gonna get tesla roof yeah but if and even cheaper than that is the asphalt shingle which is the cheapest way you can go so there's no way you can compete on price with that but what elon says is you live in you know .

In southern california i live in southern california homes here are expensive and there are neighborhoods where homes have like slate roofs which are like this natural stone and it costs a ton of money so if you're going for a more premium product a metal roof .

If you're going for a more premium product and then you want to get solar added to it now we're now we're cooking with gas now it might be competitive that's the point where tesla is right now so you're right if you live in kansas and your house costs 108 000 .

There's no scenario under which you should get tesla solar roof because your house won't even you won't even get that money back when you sell it but if you live in beverly hills or uh like la jolla or something and your house is worth 1.4 million and you have the tesla solar roof .

And a future buyer comes and says you have solar and and they can't see it and it's beautiful it's a really beautiful product that could give your value your home value that much more especially if they're still waitlist to get it right right now it's hard to get that's true .

Ha yeah that's interesting i think uh i mean aside from them that luxury product i have to say the whole solar leasing thing they're doing which one of things they're doing so differently is it used to be the power purchase agreements and the leases you have to do a 20-year contract on those things which was horrible for trying to sell .

Real estate it was toxic uh but now tesla is doing this thing where they're like oh you want solar here sign a two-page lease with us i've looked at their contracts before really simple you want to cancel cancel at any time we'll just leave the panels there .

And uh we'll switch your contract on or off for whenever you want it i think this is like a brilliant trojan horse that honestly wall street is blind to i mean tesla solar is gonna be everywhere with these cheap freaking leases and then people are gonna get addicted .

To down well that was cool let's get a battery because because who doesn't need a battery why not let's do a battery oh that was cool let's get the car i don't know what's really cool too is they've been working on this software platform called auto bidder which .

Thing like stock market for electricity and to your point even if let's say i was a previous customer and i had solar and they could pop they could wire it into their system in such a way especially in the future if auto bidder was approved where even if i say you know what i don't want solar anymore they go okay fine and they .

Can still make general electricity and sell it to like my utility company with that auto bidder platform so what's the auto bidder thing so auto bidder imagine like imagine your favorite brokerage app for trading and buying and selling stock right we talked about before how .

All the kettles in the uk turn on so what happens is imagine if my utilities uh sdg e so sdg e says hey we're we're expecting huge uh surplus demand and they we start to see like prices per kilowatt of buying electricity and my house says don't bother with the .

Cheap stuff like don't sell them for for anything less than like 50 cents unless there's a situation where we're about to have a blackout and we need electricity so bad that the the you know the ask price for electricity goes up to 50 cents and then my house goes okay i'll sell you electricity that i have my .

Power walls parked for 50 cents called hour and i could i could bank that and tesla maybe gets a commission from that but they would run all that kind of stuff so we're talking about now is kind of like grid 2.0 or the smart grid where my utility doesn't care where my power comes from it doesn't care if it's .

From a nuclear power plant or from a coal plant they just buy and sell electricity they're middlemen so sure so tesla could have solar on people's roofs to your point about kind of a trojan horse i like that analogy that's actually perfect and when autobiter comes online and it gets approved and it's allowed to .

Operate and stuff they could just be buying its electricity and and and maybe if you're if you own the product you get a cut of it or something so auto it's not something that exists right now it's something that uh is is planned for the future is what you're saying .

It would require some just like you know anything you plug into your wall outlet has to be ul certified it has to go through like a regulatory approval probably in different municipalities but i think the code is actually code complete i think it all works it's just a matter of rolling it out in some meaningful way .

And it's probably going to happen in california first either you know socal or nocal i have like an en phase battery can i use this tesla auto bidder thing or am i gonna be screwed and locked out of the tesla ecosystem that will determine the road tesla ticks going forward are .

They gonna go pure apple which is we don't play nicely with anybody else or they are they going to open up we shall see i feel i think you could go either way that's crazy yeah oh wow interesting so okay i mean what what a fascinating discussion i mean so i i want to make this clear regarding .

Lucid uh and tesla you're just bullish on really the whole industry it seems like you're skeptical you know the fisker and and some of uh you know the fairer days but uh you're really bullish on energy other than energy is there anything else .

You're investing in any other opportunities you see for disruption so we talked about kind of the biotech space fintech i think fintech is a is a really burgeoning market as well currently i'd say i'm very eevee heavy in my portfolio and because i think the next five or ten years are going to be .

The first time transportation has ever had a disruption since we started you know the model t back a long time ago so i think there's going to be even more companies than we've talked about today and charging infrastructure you know like battery recycling stuff right redwood materials there's going to .

Be tons of new investment and opportunities and the ev will be at the kind of the heart of it so that is the industry that i'm the most bullish on in the next five years i was actually going to ask you with all the stock cratering the way they have i was looking at bitcoin to see okay if .

You know powell comes out and and the stock market reacts the way it does should i be parking my money in bitcoin but sadly bitcoin has very much reflected the market so what do you think is is bitcoin a good alternative because i'm very bullish on bitcoin as well .

For me it just comes down to i don't have all the money in the world so what money i have do i invested in companies do i go bitcoin i've struggled with that what do you think it's it's so tough because i mean you're so right because uh i mean bitcoin you know here we are thinking it's an inflation hedge for sure it's an .

Inflation hedge you know now uh the market's selling off due to fears of inflation hedge or rather of inflation coming and bitcoin also falls you know bitcoin goes from you know 57 to 47 46 i don't know exactly where it is now but uh yeah you know i don't think there's a clear answer for bitcoin .

I do think that bitcoin just passed a little little micro test i thought that maybe if the market were to sell off bitcoin would sell off more rapidly as people took that as an opportunity to either cover margin or to go buy more stocks a massive bitcoin sell-off hasn't .

Actually really happened so it seems like bitcoin is just becoming more and more resilient you know it's like maybe three percent of my portfolio so it's it's small uh yeah part of me still skeptical but the more and more i study bitcoin the more and more excited i get about it .

But then that opens up the door to well if you like bitcoin then try ether and if you like ether try nfts and it goes down this rabbit hole of of like it's almost like progressing down a line of drugs you know you start with one well then try this i hear you i've yeah that's kind of where i'm at too .

When when bitcoin spiked in 2018 2017 and then crashed to 3 000 a coin i i should just bought a bunch right then and there i bought a couple but that was my first test i was really thinking is this kind of the end but bitcoin itself has just proven to be quite resilient and i think the price of where it's trading today is .

A indication of other people's trust but maybe you're right maybe that's the way to think about it is yeah it kind of followed the trend but it didn't go worse it actually did hold up pretty well so yeah yeah and who knows we don't even know if we're .

If this uh crazy period here on the market's over but uh yeah i mean i haven't added i have not added to any bitcoin really since about mid-feb uh the rest it's just mostly i mean you know tesla and some of my other favorite stocks these are just the ones i've been plowing money into .

The last few weeks it's painful though because keeps going down but i like buying the dip so it's okay with me yeah as long as you're patient and you you know what does a warren buffett always say he says the stock market is the greatest mechanism of transferring wealth from the inpatient to the patient right as .

Long as you invest in companies you believe in long-term and you're patient it's not sad but it does hurt it you know weighs on you i i feel like i i toss and turn a little bit more at night before i go to bed and stuff compared to like .

A month ago but yeah it is what it is oh sure yeah i mean it's totally totally like human nature to uh to feel less secure when things are red you know it's kind of like uh i always think of caveman psychology like look if i'm in my cave and there's a bear in a jaguar i don't .

Know why but a bear and a jaguar fighting outside my cave i'm not going to be sleeping as well because it's like oh you know this is this is things are a little uncertain right that uncertainty uh it creates fear and that kind of makes me wonder like do well do i just leave this cave and just .

Bail out of here because if i go away then that pain that uncertainty won't be there and i think that's where people sell out it's like that's it i'm done i'll just i'll start over i'll start over at a new cave it's fine you know uh so totally human in my take and the weird thing is with human nature is .

You know we have a fight or flight response with stocks you can't fight you know the bear and the jaguar come in i could fight i might lose i could fight when the candlesticks go red there's nothing i could do i i can't fight it it's either you leave or you suck it up and that hurts that .

Really hurts that's a good point so that might be why it's hard for us to accept when it does happen and so the only option you have is if you want the pain to stop you because you can't fight you leave and that's why so many people sell when the market's red .

Very good point also i mean i think generally kind of sucking at investing is not not helping me either like for example you know when tesla had their earnings call and they did from like 8 80 to 8 10. i was like oh here's a buying opportunity so first of all have more money on the .

Sideline that way you can buy on dips but if you're all in you're all in what i mean a dip does you know good right but if you were to be more patient yeah it is tough because you know it becomes like the debate of like timing the market and that uh usually what what i look at is just .

Uh every time i get paid i go shopping you know if it's down i'm not selling i'll just keep buying when i get paid but yeah i mean regularly i know a lot of people they keep a lot of cash on the side and the thinking is well uh i'll wait for the dip but what's funny is when the people have a lot of cash on the side .

Those people who are waiting for the dip they're the same people usually that when the dip comes they're going this this is just getting started and they never end up buying anyway you know right so like i'd rather you buy at 810 and then pick up some more at .

Five you know 590 or whatever then then uh sit on cash and go it's just going to keep going lower and then it never does and you're like oh dang well i should have invested them and and then and then i'll just wait for the next one and you just spend years on the sideline it is bad .

Yeah really we needed a time machine we united get together and build a time machine it's that easy i i lay in bed every night oh man if i could go back to friday at 4pm it's that simple that's it right cut the boring tunnel and get to work on this uh this is amazing well it's been a .

Really fun incredible conversation here i uh you know i want to ask you you know we've been going for over a couple hours here now uh you gotta shout you're gonna shout yourself out man how do people get in touch with you how do people learn more about .

Your your uh engineering mindset here which has been so fascinating to talk to well i appreciate that yeah so my you know my channel is tuba da vinci um we'll i think you mentioned you have a a link in the description and you know the the thing is i'm not full time unlike most people on youtube so that's .

What kind of makes it tough but i'm what i'm thinking about doing is doing more of a a weekly show where i pick a topic like fsd or maybe crispr in the future and just kind of do a dive maybe have guests maybe i'll have you on my show so i'm gonna try to find a format that .

Will allow me to make content more frequently because that's the challenge that i have now i've been on paternity leave for the last four months but i go back to work on monday and uh congratulations first of all yes second boy thank you girl boy oh super fun .

First second second second and final second and final okay what do you have uh what's your first boy i have two boys my wife probably is going to get the itch for a daughter in a couple of years but i'm trying to try to call that now as much as we can and think about the travel we can do think about all the you know .

Yeah that's our struggle i mean lauren we have two boys uh five and three lauren desperately wants a girl uh and uh it's it's it's so tough because it's like well if you try again naturally what if you have a third boy you know it's like how many are you gonna have .

And yeah my son is my younger one is only 10 months old and they're already starting to fight over toys and stuff like he's walking now he just started walking last week and i'm thinking you really want another one of these monsters in here you know wreaking havoc i mean that is they're so close together .

I mean i don't think it can get any closer that's really cool yeah about about three years apart two and a half two and three quarters years apart oh oh sorry there's our two and three quarters oh okay okay yeah three in ten months yeah oh okay oh sorry oh okay i thought you just had one .

And the other one was 10 months i'm sorry i work at a i work at an awesome software company called salesforce and they give you six months of paternity leave which is is great and i took two months when i first had them and i took the second four month period .

This at this point later on yeah sorry is it clear when's salesforce gonna go back up because i feel like you guys you know had a great run but you've been flat since september i feel like you're a company in fact you might know my uh uh i've got my uh brother-in-law so my what would it be called if my .

Brother-in-law's wife works there uh and do you know what team truly amazing company anybody who's in tech or software project management whatever depth check out salesforce i mean i can't say enough about it it's just the most as far as like a work friendly work-life balance company .

There's probably no better example of it i think the acquisition of slack probably was was a big bit to digest um you know we've had these kind of in the past and so it's just a matter of kind of getting our hands around it and you know a couple more good quarters and stuff but yeah we've we're at a talk about a buying .

Opportunity i think salesforce definitely has some upside and um just got to be patient i guess for that position to come through so oftentimes employees don't like uh adding to the company that they were you know work in are you adding to salesforce say it again are you adding stock to salesforce no i .

I have like you know rsus and espps i have the typical like engineering package but and that's that's the only salesforce stock that i that i hold yep yep okay wow well this has been a blast well folks golly this was so fun first of all thank you uh huge shout out .

For the time you spent here uh and all of your insights really incredible uh so two bit davinci on youtube uh check out ricky's channel there uh any final thoughts uh no i'd love to be back there's there's a there's probably five or six topics that you and i could .

Probably think of we can get into so yeah i'd love you back we'll we'll figure it out and uh good and let's keep in touch deal awesome we'll stand by for one second for everyone else thank you so very much uh for being here appreciate it if you found this helpful go ahead and subscribe share the .

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